Federal Government Policy Issues

Discussion and information on selected policy issues concerning tax, foreign relations, energy and other significant policies. The intent is to provide data and analysis that will assist in determining the appropriateness of the policy. Any posts containing rants, personal attacks on officials or other posters or which do not concisely present a point of information will not be published.

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

 

Tax Policy - Long Term Capital Gains Tax Rates

Congress significantly reduced the long term capital gains tax rate in May 2003. The Democrats voted against the legislation claiming that 60% of the benefit would accrue to the wealthy. The Republicans supported the legislation claiming that 60% of taxpayers would benefit, that people who earn the money should be able to keep the money and that the change would stimulate the economy.

Was this good policy and what are the facts?

Comments:
The following comments are based on net long term capital gains (data series 69 & 70) in IRS tax data for 2003 (the latest year for which data is available to the public).

- Only 7% of all 130 million returns included Long Term Capital Gains (LTCG).
- 57% percent of returns with LTCG were for tax filers with an adjusted gross income (AGI) of less than $75K. (Most of the people who benefited were middle income or less)
- 22% of the benefit of a 5% rate reduction accrued to the 3,361 returns with an AGI of $10 million or more.
- 72% of the of the benefit of a 5% rate reduction accrued to tax files with an AGI of $200K or more.
- 2003 probably understates the benefit of the rate reduction to all income groups but especially the wealthier groups as 2003 was not a great year for stockmarket gains and the 2003 gains were offset by $113 billion of LT capital losses and $199 billion of LT capital loss carryovers.

See http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/03in14ar.xls for the raw data.
 
FYI - The situation with the dividend tax cut in the 2003 Tax Bill shows similar benefit patterns.

- 64% of the 2003 tax returns with dividends were filed by those fillers with an adjusted gross income of $75,000 or less so it is accurate to say that the majority of people who benefited from the dividend tax cut were middle class or lower in terms of income. However, it is again misleading to treat the individual who made $1 from 1 share of AT&T stock inherited from a relative the same as those 6,126 taxpayers with an adjusted gross income of $10 million or more who had average dividend income in 2003 of $1,640,000 each.
- The top 0.4% of tax filers with adjusted gross incomes of $500,000 or more realized 31% of the benefit from the dividend rate reduction.
 
How Much Do the LTCG & Dividend Tac Cuts cost.

When announcing the 2003 tax cuts, President Bush said that the 10 year cost would be $330b. However, this was somewhat misleading because many of the tax cuts passed were set to expire in less than 10 years.

The Joint Committee on Taxation estimated in 2003 that the dividend and long term capital gains (LTCG) rate reductions alone would cost $325b over 10 years if these tax cuts were extended.

The average cost to each of the 130 million tax filers in 2003, assuming that the $325 billion cost to the federal deficit of the dividend & LTCG cuts will need to be paid back some day is about $2,500 each. The average benefit to tax filers with an adjusted gross income of $100K or less for the dividend tax cut in 2003 was $18.36 (assume $183 over 10 years) and the average benefit for the LTCG for these tax filers in 2003 was $17.76 (assume $177 over 10 years). This doesn't seem like a good deal for the average tax filer.

See the 2003 IRS data for the raw data.
 
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