Federal Government Policy Issues

Discussion and information on selected policy issues concerning tax, foreign relations, energy and other significant policies. The intent is to provide data and analysis that will assist in determining the appropriateness of the policy. Any posts containing rants, personal attacks on officials or other posters or which do not concisely present a point of information will not be published.

Sunday, May 28, 2006

 

National Sales Tax

There is currently a renewed discussion of replacing the personal income tax with a National Sales Tax (NSA). Given President Bush's focus on making major changes to the US tax code, there is a significant possibility that he will attempt to do this after the 2008 mid term elections. The benefits discussed by the supporters of such a change are an easier tax to administer, abolishing the IRS and stimulating economic growth. Estimates of what the rate of a NAS would be range from 15% up to 30% on top of existing state and local sales tax rates.

Politics <br />Blog Top Sites

Comments:
A National Sales Tax (NST) would unfairly impact savers in that savers have already paid income tax on the money that they earned that was put into their savings accounts. The money would be taxed again when they spent these savings on personal consumption. Given that much of the money in savings accounts is held by senior citizens, it can be expected that they will lobby strongly against a NSA and, historically, this group has been very effective in pursuading their representatives to support their policies.
 
The Cato Institute estimates that a National Sales Tax rate of 15% would be required to in order to be revenue neutral. This rate of 15% assumes that no purchases including housing are exempted but does include a full rebate of sales tax paid for all income up to the poverty level. Keep in mind that most families at these lower income levels do not pay any federal income tax. They expect the rate to drop to 12% as the national Sales Tax stimulates economic activity.

See http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-272.html for the full text of the CATO study

For 2003, the IRS reports total income tax due of $790b. According to the US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, total personal consumption in 2003 was $7.71t and total consumption by the federal, state and local governments was $2.09t for total 2003 consumption of $9.8t. Therefor, for 2003, if a national Sales Tax was to have generated the same amount of revenues as the personal income tax with absolutely no exemptions. a rate of 8.06% would have been required in addition to the then current state and local sales tax rates. In as much as taxing the purchases of government would increase the cost and therefor the revenue required by government, a more accurate National Sales Tax rate of 10.25% would be required with the purchases of all levels of government exempted.

The reality is that there would almost certainly be large categories of personal expenditures exempted from the National Sales Tax and/or credits for lower income families.
 
Generally, a NST without low earner rebates would be highly regressive in that low earner families would pay a much higher tax rate than they do now and would pay a much higher percentage of their total income in taxes than would high earner families.

It is difficult to see how a change to a National Sales Tax (NST) from the IRS personal income tax could stimulate the economy. Low earner families spend a very high percentage of their total income on consumption as they usually can not afford to contribute to savings and retirement accounts. Therefor, a change to the NST could be expected to significantly reduce personal consumption expenditures at the lower income levels. High income families generally save a large percentage of their income so a reduction in tax rates for high earner families would not result in increased personal consumption expenditures by them sufficient to offset the decline in low income family consumption.
 
Post a Comment



<< Home

Archives

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?